Who's ahead in the polls? Latest numbers show Harris maintaining steady lead over Trump
WASHINGTON - New polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a steady lead over former President Donald Trump.
It appears the VP’s post-debate bump isn't slowing down anytime soon. Aggregate polling from RealClearPolitics shows Harris ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup with an average of 49.3% compared to Trump’s 47.1%.
Numbers from FiveThirtyEight show similar results with Harris maintaining her lead over Trump by 2.8%. Right now, the vice president has 48.6% of the vote while the former president has 45.8%.
Harris is largely backed by young voters, 64% of whom say they would vote for her while 32% say they would vote for Trump, according to a Harvard Youth poll.
It’s not yet clear if Tuesday’s vice presidential debate will change those poll numbers. Voters were generally divided on who won, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. A CBS News poll showed that 42% of viewers felt Vance won the debate, 41% thought Walz had the better showing and 17 %felt it was a tie.
There’s a good chance their debate may not have any impact though — FOX’s LiveNOW asked viewers if the vice presidential debate would sway their decision at the ballot box and 84% said no, 14% said yes and 2% said they were undecided.
Regardless, Walz and Vance were immediately back on the campaign trail Wednesday along with their running mates. With just 32 days left to go until Election Day, both campaigns are under a time crunch to bolster support in key swing states.
As the clock ticks down to Election Day, who’s ahead in the polls right now? Here’s a closer look at the most recent numbers:
Morning Consult
The latest Morning Consult poll has Harris with 51% support among likely voters and Trump with 46%. The remaining portion of respondents said they were voting for someone else or had no opinion.
This matches the advantage that Harris had last week but Trump has seen some improvement among independent likely voters — a key group both parties have been targeting.
"Maybe it does matter:" Vance, Walz court undecided independents in polite debate
One day after Sen. J.D. Vance (R) and Gov. Tim Walz (D) faced off in their first and only debate of the 2024 election cycle, political observers say the most important takeaway was the collegial tone. That could be crucial to swaying undecided independents on the campaign trail, according to Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels. He joined Jim Lokay on "The Final 5" to discuss the stark contrast between thedebate and others seen in recent years, particularly focusing on the substance and civility displayed by the candidates.
In their most recent report for Bloomberg News, Morning Consult polling also showed that Harris continues to lead Trump in a majority of battleground states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The two are tied in Georgia.
Leger x NY Post
In a Leger study commissioned by the New York Post, data found Harris ahead of Trump by four percentage points — 51% to 47% among likely U.S. voters.
When asked who they think will win the election in November, 40% of respondents said Harris and 39% said Trump.
But when asked who they thought would handle key issues facing the U.S. today, respondents overwhelmingly saw Trump as more capable of tackling illegal immigration, jobs and the economy, national security, government spending, inflation and crime.
Trump was also seen more favorably on character traits such as being a strong leader, capable of being respected by other countries and ready to lead.
Economist/YouGov
Harris still has a narrow edge over Trump among registered voters — 48% to 45% — in the new Economist/YouGov poll.
As both candidates fight for their share of undecided voters, data shows that independents are closely divided: 42% say they will vote for Harris while 40% prefer Trump.
The survey was completed before Tuesday's vice presidential debate but post-debate polling shows that the collegial tone the VP candidates took may improved voters’ views of both candidates — but especially Vance.
A YouGov survey taken immediately before the debate found that 37% of registered voters had a very or somewhat favorable view of Vance. The survey taken immediately after showed that number jumped to 42%. Additionally, the share of registered voters with very or somewhat unfavorable views of Vance dipped from 48% to 41%.
Emerson College
An Emerson College poll showed a similarly slim margin between Harris and Trump, 50% to 48%. One percent support someone else, and 1% are undecided.
"The margin between the candidates has stayed the same since early September, when Harris held 49% and Trump 47%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Harris maintains a slight edge, though less than Biden’s four-point lead in Emerson 2020 national polls at this time."
The poll shows Harris’ lead is significantly higher among voters ages 18-29, with support for her at 63% compared to 36% for Trump.
When it comes to favorability, the survey found that voters are evenly split 50-50 on how they view Harris. For Trump, 49% have a favorable view of the former president, while 51% have an unfavorable view of him.
Who's ahead in battleground states?
Arizona: Trump +1.2%
- Trump: 48.1%
- Harris: 46.9%
Georgia: Trump +1.2%
- Trump: 48.3%
- Harris: 47.2%
Michigan: Harris +1.6%
- Trump: 46.4%
- Harris: 48.0%
Nevada: Harris +1.1%
- Trump: 46.9%
- Harris: 47.9%
North Carolina: Trump +0.5%
- Trump: 48.0%
- Harris: 47.5%
Pennsylvania: Harris +0.8%
- Trump: 47.2%
- Harris: 48.0%
Wisconsin: Harris +1.7%
- Trump: 46.8%
- Harris: 48.5%