Virginia battleground congressional seats, key races in 2024 election
Key races in Virginia
There are several key congressional races in Virginia this year that could determine the future of the Commonwealth. Kyle Kondik from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics joins FOX 5's On The Hill to discuss the balance of power and control of the House and Senate in the state.
FAIRFAX, Va. - Two close races for U.S. Senate in Virginia and a question to revise the wording of the Virginia Constitution are among the list of election results across the country and the DMV that FOX 5 will be tracking closely on election night.
VA 2nd Congressional District
One of the most competitive races in Virginia is between two Navy veterans in the district around Virginia Beach. Democratic candidate Missy Cotter Smasal is challenging the Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.
The district, which was redrawn after the 2020 consensus, includes Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight and Virginia’s eastern shore and is home to the largest naval base in the country. The district’s voting population is heavily active duty and retired military.
Cotter Smasal and Kiggans both say they want to cut costs for coastal Virginians and see immigration as a major issue, but differ somewhat on reproductive rights.
Abortion access is a top issue for Cotter Smasal, who has said it’s the "number one thing" she’s hearing Virginians are concerned about.
Kiggans said in a social media video that abortion "is an issue that should be legislated at the state level."
"I’ve always been an advocate for women to choose life, allowing for exceptions in the cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother," Kiggans continued in the video.
The two are in a very close race, according to the most recent poll conducted by The Watson Center at CNU which showed Kiggans’ lead of five points in a Sept. poll tightening to a one point lead over Cotter Smasal in October, within the margin of error of +/-3.9%.
VA 7th Congressional District
Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman are vying to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat, who declined to seek reelection so she could run for governor.
Virginia’s 7th Congressional District flipped parties in the last decade when Spanberger was first elected to represent it in 2018, defeating then-incumbent Republican David Brat with a margin of less than 2%.
Stephen Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political science professor, said it’s Virginia’s most competitive race in 2024 and a bellwether for the U.S. House balance of power.
"There’s a lot of national interest in the Virginia 7th, and it is the sort of district where congressional majorities are won and lost," he said. "If you can’t win the outer-ring suburban counties of big cities in America, then you’re not going to be in the House majority."
The candidates to represent Virginia’s battleground 7th Congressional District both say democracy is in trouble.
Each candidate has made the case that the government has failed voters in the district and across the country as leaders embrace extreme politics. In this year’s election, they say, the country’s future is on the line.
For months, Vindman, 49, and Anderson, 40, have been entrenched in a vote-by-vote crunch in their fast-growing district, where veterans make up about 12% of the population. Neither of the two Army veterans have previously been elected for public office.
Vindman has been focused on the issue of abortion access throughout his campaign.
"It affects over 50% of our population. Frankly, it's an issue associated with freedom and privacy. It used to be a constitutional right a couple of years ago before the Dobbs decision. And for me, I spent 25 years in the Army defending Americans rights and freedoms. And I feel like they're under attack," said Vindman to FOX 5’s Jim Lokay. "I take the position that we need to ensure that Roe v Wade is the law of the land. And I will support that in Congress and I will veto any attempt to have a national abortion ban.
Also a top issue for Vindman: the economy.
"I'm a dad. I've raised my family in Prince William County. And so I'm very sensitive to gas prices, prices of groceries," said Vindman. "I mean, I was at the grocery store. A sleeve of Coke now is nine bucks, right? It used to be $2.50. I think that's frankly a little bit outrageous."
Eugene Vindman makes his case for Congress
Voters in Virginia's 7th district will send a new representative to Congress in November. Lawyer and former Army Col. Eugene Vindman is the Democratic nominee in the race to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger as she runs for governor next year. Vindman joins Jim on "The Final 5" to explain why he jumped in the race, his pivotal role in the first Trump impeachment, and how abortion rights and concerns about the economy are shaping his campaign.
Anderson, a U.S. Army combat veteran and attorney, previously sought his party's nomination in the 2022 primary, finishing about 5 percentage points behind the winner, Yesli Vega. Vega went on to lose to Spanberger.
Anderson has made the economy and border issues part of his regular talking points in his campaign.
"The economy is the forefront of issues. Right now, about a third of people in Virginia can't afford weekly expenses. That's food. That's gas. It's rent and it's clothes," said Anderson to FOX 5’s Jim Lokay in September. "I support a balanced budget and making sure we cut spending, keep taxes low, support our small businesses and get energy, US energy back up and moving again."
Anderson has said that issues of security at the southern border are affecting Virginians "from a public safety and public health standpoint."
"We look at what's impacting us specifically as it pertains to the southern border. Five Virginians a day are overdosing on fentanyl poisoning and die. So we’ve really got to get the border under control," said Anderson.
Derrick Anderson wants to flip Virginia's 7th district
With Rep. Abigail Spanberger vacating Virginia's 7th congressional district in favor of a run for governor, Republicans sense a pickup opportunity. The GOP nominee, attorney and former Green Beret Derrick Anderson joins Jim on "The Final 5" to discuss the race and how the botched U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan spurred him to run for the seat.
Virginia Senate: Kaine vs Cao
Republican candidate Hung Cao is aiming to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine for Virginia Senate.
The two went head-to-head in a single debate in October, sparring over issues from illegal immigration to tariffs on foreign goods.
Kaine is a two-time senator in the commonwealth, seeking a third term. He has focused heavily on the economy as the lead issue throughout his campaign.
"I've been standing up for Virginia for 30 years, and I'll continue to do so with energy," he said in an interview on the Final 5 last month.
Kaine is an advocate for the expansion of infrastructure and manufacturing in Virginia. Kaine also supports tax cuts for low and middle income families, and for veteran and military families.
Cao, a 25-year Navy veteran, has focused his campaign on protecting jobs against foreign "unfair trade practices," medication shortages and tighter border security.
"If you came here illegally, you’ve basically screwed up the whole system," Cao said on the debate stage in October. "You can’t jump the line. I mean, you go to Costco and jump the line, what do you think is going to happen? You can’t come here and expect the American dream if you’re not willing to obey the American laws and embrace the American culture."
Kaine, who benefits from being a household name thanks to his time as governor, his two terms in the Senate and running on the national ticket in 2016, has been consistently ahead of Cao in polls in the last few months.
Cao trails Kaine by 14 points in an October poll from the Schar School at George Mason University.
Kaine’s lead is bolstered by a 24-point margin among female voters, according to pollsters, while male voters in Virginia are "virtually split" between Kaine and Cao.
Virginia Proposed Constitutional Amendment
All Virginians' ballots will pose the question as to whether a section of the state’s constitutional amendment should be reworded.
The ballot question, if passed, would reword Section 6-A of Article X. Taxation and Finance as follows:
"Property tax exemption; certain veterans and their surviving spouses; surviving spouses of soldiers who died in the line of duty."
Elections.virginia.gov explains the proposed amendment as follows:
‘A "yes" vote would allow the surviving spouse of a soldier who died in the line of duty to claim the same real property tax exemption on their principal place of residence that is currently only available to the surviving spouses of soldiers who are killed in action.
A "no" vote will not allow such additional surviving spouses to claim the real property tax exemption.’
Read the full text of the existing and proposed amendment from elections.virginia.gov here.
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