Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman says Harris will win. Here's what the polls show.
Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman uses 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ tracker on 2024 election
Presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ method, says the 2024 race is too early to call, but that a lot would have to go wrong for one candidate to lose.
WASHINGTON - With less than two weeks to go until the election, voters are paying close attention to the multitude of polls coming out across the political landscape.
Many of the national polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump. But polling in key battleground states shows Trump moving ahead or locked in a dead heat with Harris.
With Trump and Harris seemingly neck-and-neck in the race, some are starting to look at early voting data to determine which direction the election will swing.
One of those people is expert historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman. He has called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s and made his final prediction saying Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election back in September.
Lichtman bases his predictions on what he calls the 13 Keys to the White House. After Harris secured a majority of his keys, Litchman announced she was the candidate most likely to win the race just days before the presidential debate.
Two weeks out, he says he stands by the decision.
In weekly livestreams on YouTube, Litchman has covered a variety of topics related to the election and recently, including the recent polls.
"Polls give this idea of drama, that candidates are sprinting ahead and falling behind every day based on the events of the campaigns and the pollsters keep score," he said.
Litchman says he notoriously doesn’t rely on polls to make predictions and that the current numbers are too far within the margin of error to be useful.
"Anyone who’s followed me knows the margin of error ain’t +/-3% — that’s pure statistical error. Add on all the non-statistical error — non-response, people lying, people changing their minds, not getting likely voters right — and it’s at least double," Lichtman said. "So the real error is at least +/- 6%. So you need a gap of 12 points before it’s not noise."
Lichtman says when it comes to polls and surveys, he estimates "at least a 10% falloff from those who claim they are going to vote on Election Day."
In some of his recent livestreams, Lichtman has instead been looking at new early voting data provided through an NBC News dashboard. He says this data provides a more tangible look at the direction the race is headed in.
"These are real votes. These are votes in the bank," Lichtman said. "These votes are much more valuable than those who say ‘oh yeah, I’m going to vote on Election Day.’ Well, they may or may not."
FILE - Official absentee ballot issued in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
As of Oct. 23, NBC tallied over 23.6 million votes cast in-person and by mail nationally. Their data shows that 44% of these votes were cast by registered Democrats, 38% cast by registered Republicans and 18% by others.
Lichtman notes that while the data shows the party affiliation of the voters, there’s no way to know if they voted in line with their party. However, he says this data can provide some early insights into each candidate's favorability by state.
Here’s which way early in-person and mail-in voters appear to be leaning in each battleground state:
- Georgia- Leaning Republican
- Michigan- Leaning Democratic
- North Carolina- Split nearly evenly
- Pennsylvania- Leaning Democratic
- Arizona- Leaning Republican
- Wisconsin- Leaning Democratic
- Nevada- Leaning Republican
Litchman says of these states, he believes Republicans will need to secure Georgia and North Carolina if they expect to win.
"Georgia is very much a state that’s up for grabs in this election," Lichtman said. "The truth is Republicans have to win Georgia. Democrats win Georgia the odds are overwhelming that they’re going to win the election because they are stronger than the Republicans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Republicans really need North Carolina and Georgia — two states that are very much up in the air."
So how does all of this compare to the latest poll numbers?
Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have an edge in most national polls. All the polls are extremely close and within the margin of error.
- FiveThirtyEight: Harris leads Trump by 1.8%, with the candidates at 48.1% and 46.3% respectively.
- Cook Political Report: Harris leads Trump by 1.8% with the candidates at 49.0% and 47.2% respectively.
- RealClearPolitics: Harris leads Trump by 0.9% with the candidates at 49.3% and 48.4% respectively.
- 270toWin: Harris leads Trump by 1.5% with the candidates at 49.2% and 47.7% respectively.
Who’s ahead in the battleground states?
Vice President Kamala Harris continues to maintain an edge nationally, but polls show former President Donald Trump ahead in several swing states that will decide the election, showing an increasingly tight race in the final weeks of campaigning.
From 270toWin.com
- Arizona: Trump leads Harris by 1.7%
- Georgia: Trump has the strongest lead among the swing states in Georgia, polling 48.9% compared to Harris’ 47%.
- Michigan: Trump appears to have a slight 0.4% lead over Harris
- Nevada: Harris has a 0.8% lead over Trump in Nevada polling
- North Carolina: Trump leads over Harris, 48.1% to 47.6%
- Pennsylvania: Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania, 47.3% to 47%
- Wisconsin: Harris has a 0.5% lead over Trump in Wisconsin
