Harris takes narrow lead over Trump in majority of key swing states
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WASHINGTON - Democrats are heading into their Chicago convention with momentum on their side.
A pair of national poll averages now has Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump and on Wednesday, new polling from the Cook Political Report and the bipartisan team of BSG and GS Strategy Group showed Harris either leading or tied with Trump in six of the seven key swing states.
In an average of the national polls, FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by 2.8 percentage points while Real Clear Politics puts her ahead by 1.1 percent.
A lead — even a small one — in national poll averages is what Democrats want to see when they kick off the convention next week.
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When it comes to the swing states, Harris has managed to flip several swing states where she was trailing behind Trump. Harris is now ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump remains ahead in Nevada.
Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 48% to 47% in those states in the head-to-head, according to the Cook report.
It appears that Harris’ success has been driven by increased support from independent voters, as well as a galvanized Democratic base who were wavering in their support of President Joe Biden. While it’s good news for Democrats, they still have their work cut out.
Wall Street Journal correspondent Aaron Zitner tells FOX 5 it’s a critical time as more undecided voters are making up their minds.
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"In our polling, the share of people who are up for grabs has shrunk. In early July, we had 28 percent of our sample being uncommitted – they might be leaning toward one party or the other but weren’t committed. That has fallen from 28 percent in early July to 15 percent in late July and I’d be that it has fallen even further," said Aaron Zitner with The Wall Street Journal.
The results are similar to the most recent New York Times/Siena College survey, which shows Harris slightly ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
It’s an indicator of how much progress Harris has made since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race but it's also worth noting that Biden was ahead of Trump by 7.7% in the national average on Aug. 14, 2020. But Biden failed to deliver wins in key swing states, leading to a Trump victory.
Trump, meanwhile, is stumping hard in those swing states to close the gap and bring voters back his way. He appeared in Asheville, North Carolina Wednesday afternoon — a state he won by less than 1.4 percentage points in 2020.