From 80s to Autumn chills: DC’s October weather whirl

BETHESDA, Md. (FOX 5 DC) - October has been off to a comfortably warm start here in the D.C. region.

The past couple of days have been the warmest since the middle of September in our area. Temperatures in the 80s are not so uncommon to start the month. It's rare, but we have even seen some 90° weather, most recently in both 2018 and 2019.

But the latest the D.C. region has ever had a 90°+ day was Oct. 11, back in 1919. So, the season of "extreme heat" should come to an end soon.

The 80° weather is still possible through much of November. In 1921, the region experienced temperatures in the 80s as late as Nov. 18. But the average last day of 80°+ weather is Oct. 13, after which point 70s are much more common. For those that love their warmth, we still have a couple of more days of sunshine and 80s to enjoy before more typical fall weather starts to roar back in.

This includes Thursday night here in D.C.

While clouds will be on the rise, it is expected to be a quiet but mild night for the Washington Commanders (2-2) game against the winless Chicago Bears (0-4) at FedEx Field. The weather should not be an issue for fans heading to the game. Perhaps, a light jacket for those post-game hours, but otherwise hard to ask for a better forecast for an evening football game.

By the end of the workweek, a strong cold front will push in from the west. You'll begin to notice some changes as early as Thursday, as cloud cover will be on the rise throughout the day. Friday will be the first day of the week that features more clouds than sunshine, with the chance of a few scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder. The good news for the many Friday Night Lights high school football games in our region is that it does not look overly wet.

Showers should be very hit-and-miss until the overnight hours, as things stand at the moment.

Saturday brings, perhaps, the best chance of more widespread showers. For those trying to make plans for one of the many fall festivals going on across the D.C. region this weekend — the Billy Joel concert, or the Baltimore Orioles starting their MLB playoff journey — keep in mind rain showers will be possible. The one piece of good news is that most of the weather models have most of the shower activity during the first half of the day. So the day is unlikely to be a washout. It's just unfortunate that it is the one-day out of the next seven that has the highest chance for some precipitation.

We will keep you updated throughout the week on the timing of these showers.

By the end of the weekend, dry weather returns to the D.C. region, however, temperatures are likely to be 20-25° cooler than how we started the new month. Sunday will feel more like a November than an October day, with high temperatures only in the lower 60s with some suburbs struggling to even make it out of the 50s in the afternoon. It is likely to be breezy as well as an upper low dives southward across the Great Lakes, bringing several days of well below-normal temperatures to our region. Monday morning could be the first widespread morning in the 40s since early May!

The good news is that this cool "extreme" should be short-lived, with comfortable 70° temperatures returning by the middle of next week.

For those wanting more color in their early fall season, we are expecting to see more and more color popping up over the next week in areas west of I-95.

Moderate color should even start to be present in some of the higher elevated areas of the Virginia Blue Ridge and West Virginia range.

Fall colors should start to advance much more quickly in our region after Oct. 15, with peak fall foliage here in D.C. still expected closer to Halloween.

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