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DC weather: Polar blast, wind chill and more freezing temperatures
FOX 5 meteorologist Mike Thomas delivers the latest weather forecast.
It is hard to believe that we are now just three weeks away from 2024 coming to an end.
The holiday season, and the lead-up to it, are always one of the busiest times of year nationally for shoppers, travelers, and plans with family and friends.
In the FOX 5 Weather Department, we get one question more than any other this time of year: Is there any chance of some Christmas snow?
In terms of just simple history, the odds are always against us.
Less than ten percent of years on record report measurable snow falling on Christmas Day here in D.C.
When was the last time it snowed on Christmas in the DC area?
It's been over two decades since measurable snow last fell on Christmas Day (0.2 inches in 2002) and over half a century since the city picked up more than an inch of snow on the holiday (4.3 inches in 1969).
D.C. has only picked up more than one inch of snow on Christmas Day four times as far back as records go, which go back reliably to the 1880s.
Now, if you are one of those people who also counts snow already on the ground as constituting a white Christmas - your odds do get a little better, though not substantially.
Famously, back in 2009, D.C. was still buried in over half a foot of snow following the Great December Blizzard of December 18th-19th, 2009.
The storm dropped a record 16.4 inches of snow on the city, and remains the worst December blizzard on record for D.C. There have been thirteen Christmas Days with over one inch of snow on the ground.
The most common decade for snow on the ground for Christmas Day was the 1960s, which featured four of them.
Will snow fall in DC, Maryland or Virginia on Christmas?
So what are the expectations for the upcoming holiday season? Weather models have just begun to get into the early forecast around the Christmastime period. Is there any chance that this Christmas could break the trend?
Early forecasts from the National Weather Service favor normal to below normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country in the week leading up to Christmas.
Their confidence is pretty high that the western half of the country will be looking at above normal temperatures.
Another cold blast headed toward DC region
After a cold end to the current week, models are shifting back to a milder pattern for much of next workweek. Temperatures may even eclipse 60°F once again on Tuesday afternoon, though the milder temperatures will come with several chances for rainfall as well.
As we head into the end of next week though, models are in very strong agreement of yet another blast of strong cold pushing into the D.C. region.
A strong ridge over the western half of the United States will "pulse" northward into Canada, Alaska, and the Arctic Circle at the end of the week, displacing cold polar air and sending it southward into the eastern half of the country. Another strong cold air outbreak is likely from around next weekend in the run-up to the Christmas holiday.
What is unknown at this time is how long that cold air will linger in the D.C. region. Early projections suggest it may start to weaken around Christmas Day with milder conditions for the final weekend of 2024, but confidence about how fast the pattern could shift back in a mild direction is low at this time.
What is a warm sector?
Now, anytime you have a major change in air mass, you typically have to be on guard for a storm of some sort. More often than not, when you are on the front end of a cold pattern, you are typically looking at a rainmaker for the I-95 corridor around Washington, D.C. This is because more frequently than not, they travel what we call the baroclinic zone, or zone of greatest temperature difference, and pass to the west of D.C.
This puts the city in what is called the warm sector, where temperatures just are not cold enough to support snowfall.
What we would need for this storm to feature more winter weather is an initial shot of cold air ahead of it, to push this baroclinic zone farther to the southeast. At least as far as things appear at the moment, this does not appear to be the case.
It is far enough in the future though that we will be monitoring for any trends in a colder direction.
European model: Christmas snow possible in DC
What about the holiday itself?
At least one model is giving hope that cold air sticks around long enough, that snow showers and flurries could be possible on Christmas Day. The issue with this is that it is two weeks in the future, and weather models are not known for their accuracy at this range with things like clippers and snow showers.
It also disagrees with several different weather models, which suggest that the cold pattern may break by Christmas Day and allow temperatures to moderate. So, while it is nice to see, we do not give it too much credence at this range.
We will continue to bring you updates on the weather around this holiday season in the weeks ahead as our confidence in the forecast grows. Simply based on our history though, I would not hold your breath, snow lovers! Though, you never really know when a little bit of Christmas magic could be in the cards.