PEAK BLOOM: Warmth to welcome DC cherry blossoms this week

WASHINGTON - As of Tuesday, March 25, the cherry blossoms around D.C.’s Tidal Basin are officially still in Stage 5 — the puffy white stage. But the National Park Service has noted that a number of the trees are starting to hit peak bloom already, especially around the area of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial. 

Officially, though, peak bloom only occurs when 70% or more of the individual trees are in peak bloom. This is likely to occur sometime between Wednesday and Friday of this week.

One thing that could prevent Wednesday from being the day that peak bloom is achieved is the temperatures. A deep trough swinging through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday will keep much of the region below 60°F for the middle of the week, with overnight lows at the Tidal Basin dropping into the 40s. 

Whether or not this prevents peak bloom will really depend on how far along they made it through Stage 5 with the 60s early this week. Notably, in 2019, the first day of peak bloom on April 1 featured a high temperature of just 51°F.

If peak bloom is delayed for a couple of days, it will almost certainly be achieved before the end of the week. By Friday, a strong warm front will push through the region. While it could initially bring us some clouds and perhaps a few much-needed showers (our region remains in a severe drought heading into early spring) southwest winds picking up on the back of an early-season Bermuda High should send temperatures well into the 60s to near 70°F by Friday afternoon. This could be the final boost the blossoms need to come out in full force.

If, for some reason, the blossoms are particularly stubborn this year and refuse to budge during the late workweek, Saturday would almost certainly be the day that sends them over the edge. Weather models range from the upper 70s to mid-80s across the D.C. region Saturday afternoon, which should pretty easily end up being D.C.’s warmest day of the year so far. 

As such, we expect that the Tidal Basin area will be very crowded this entire weekend, but particularly on Saturday as it is likely the nicest day of the weekend. 

INTERACTIVE CHERRY BLOSSOM MAP

By Sunday, we come under the influence of an approaching cold front from the west. While temperatures are still expected to be warm in the 70s, it looks more likely that we will have to dodge some showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two during the afternoon hours. These threats could linger into the following Monday as well. 

Of course, a key question is: once the blossoms do reach peak, how long will you be able to head down to see them? 

Typically, a peak bloom lasts 5–10 days, though it can be shorter or longer depending on weather conditions. Namely, once peak bloom is achieved, we want chilly nights and windless days to keep those pedals on the tree branches.

If you are making plans beyond the upcoming weekend to visit the Tidal Basin, early indications are that the midweek time period will likely be the driest but also the coolest, with highs in the 50s and 60s most favored at this time in the Tuesday to Wednesday window. Around Thursday to Friday, guidance suggests that we have to keep our guard up for another storm system in the East, though the exact timing and location of this storm is far to early to tell. 

A very early look at next weekend suggests it will be dry and pretty mild in the 70s, but confidence more than ten days in the future is pretty low. Continue to tune in to FOX 5 and FOX Local for your latest forecast so that you can pick the best days for your D.C. Cherry Blossom viewing!