Virginia’s gubernatorial race begins to take shape

VIRGINIA - The nation's attention will be on Virginia this year as voters elect a new governor, in a race that is traditionally seen as a bellwether for the party in power at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Conventional wisdom surrounding the race initially pointed to a likely showdown between Democratic candidate and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. However, recent developments have complicated the landscape.

Former Del. Dave LaRock and former State Sen. Amanda Chase have both launched bids to gather the 10,000 signatures needed to make the Republican primary ballot. 

Conservative political talk show host John Fredericks joined The Final 5 with Jim Lokay to analyze the state of the race and the key players involved.

"It’s going to be Spanberger versus Winsome Sears. Just because you have two candidates doesn’t mean they’re viable. Dave LaRock — nice guy, principled conservative — basically couldn’t win his own Senate district. Amanda Chase is becoming basically the Harold Stassen on heels in Virginia. She runs in every race, doesn’t win any of them."

LaRock, a general contractor, served ten years in the House of Delegates before losing a bit for the Virginia Senate in 2023. 

Chase served two terms in the Virginia Senate. She finished third behind now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin in the Republican race for governor in 2021. She lost a primary for her seat in 2023.

Lokay asked Fredericks to assess Governor Glenn Youngkin’s performance and whether Sears could continue his legacy.

"I think he’s been an extraordinary governor," Fredericks said. "I was a fan of Terry McAuliffe in his first term. He brought a lot of jobs here. But I think Youngkin has been extraordinary."

Fredericks believes Youngkin’s political future is influencing his decisions.

"The stakes here are tremendously high for two of the most important players on the Republican side — Glenn Youngkin, because he’s going to be a one-term governor, and he’s already running for President in Iowa," Fredericks said. "Every decision he’s making has an eye on how it’s going to affect the caucuses in Iowa."

Fredericks thinks the Republican establishment will likely rally around Sears because a strong Republican showing in Virginia is crucial for the national party heading into 2026.

"The last thing they want is a blowout for the Democrats in Virginia, which would affect the narrative going into the midterms," Fredericks explained. "That’s why Sears is going to get all the money she needs."

Fredericks believes Sears should use the primary race to sharpen her political skills and debate her challengers ahead of November in preparation for a Democratic challenger in a race where national attention will be high.

"She should participate in debates. She should run a campaign because it’s going to serve her well going into the fall," Fredericks said. "Spanberger is a very tough candidate. That has the potential to be a very riveting race."

There's also history at play: because Virginia's gubernatorial election generally occurs the year after a presidential election, it is often viewed as a referendum on the policies of the White House, and precedent doesn't favor the party in power. Of the 11 governors elected since 1981, only one was from the President's party: Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who was elected in 2013 during President Barack Obama's second term.