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Presidential election polls: Who is currently ahead?

By Megan Ziegler
Published  November 5, 2024 10:26am EST
2024 Election
FOX 5 DC

The Brief

    • Several final presidential polls released before Election Day found Harris to have a slight edge nationally over Trump, while Trump was leading in more swing states.
    • The seven swing states this election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 
    • Trump was found to be leading in four of them and virtually tied in a fifth, according to polling aggregate 270toWin.

Election Day has arrived, and the final hours are ticking for Americans to cast their votes. 

The outcome of the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a true toss-up, according to the most recent polling.

Harris has maintained a slight lead nationally, while Trump still had a slight edge in several of the important swing states. 

Here’s what some of the final polls said:

Marist/PBS/NPR

Released: Monday, Nov. 4

Harris with a 4 point lead nationally

The last national NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Harris to have a 4-point lead over Trump among likely voters. 

Overall, 51% said they’d support Harris if they were voting today, and 47% said they’d be supporting Trump. Two percent said they were supporting another party’s candidate. 

RELATED: Roughly 82 million voted early in the 2024 election – here are some takeaways

New York Times/Siena

Released: Sunday, Nov. 3

Harris with a 1 point lead nationally

The final set of polls from New York Times/Siena found the candidates are still essentially tied, battling it down to the final hour. 

Overall, 48% of responders said they’d vote for Harris if the election was held today, to 47% saying their vote would be for Trump. 

On the state level, the poll showed Harris had made gains in North Carolina and Georgia, while Trump made gains in Pennsylvania and maintained his lead in Arizona.

READ MORE: Swing state poll: Final New York Times/Siena results before election

Gallup poll

Released: Wednesday, Oct. 30

Harris viewed more favorably nationally

Gallup’s poll focused more on how Americans view the candidates versus who they’d vote for.  

Kamala Harris was slightly more favored than Donald Trump by Americans, according to the results. 

Approximately 49% of Americans had a favorable view of Harris compared to 44% viewing Trump favorably. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, had a higher favorable rating at 45% than JD Vance, Trump’s vice-presidential pick, at 39%. 

READ MORE: Here's what Gallup's final poll says about Trump, Harris

Swing state polls

Tracking election day across the country

Election Day 2024 arrived Tuesday — with tens of millions of Americans having already cast their ballots. Political analyst Rich Rubino joined LiveNOW from FOX to discuss the latest on the final day in the race to the White House.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House, and the seven swing states have a collective 93 votes that will ultimately decide who wins.

RELATED: How many electoral votes does each state have?

Who’s winning in Arizona? 

Consensus: Donald Trump

An average of 17 polls, with the latest as of Nov. 4, showed Trump with a 1.7% lead over Harris, according to 270toWin. Arizona has 11 electoral votes.

Who’s winning in Georgia?

Consensus: Donald Trump

An average of 15 polls, the most recent on Nov. 34, shows Trump with a 1.2% lead in Georgia. Georgia has 16 electoral votes. 

Who’s winning in Michigan? 

Consensus: Kamala Harris 

An average of 23 polls, the most recent on Nov. 4, shows Harris with a 1.8% lead in Michigan. Michigan has 15 electoral votes. 

Who’s winning in Nevada? 

Consensus: Donald Trump

An average of 13 polls, the most recent on Nov. 4, shows Trump with a 0.6% lead in Nevada. Nevada has six electoral votes.

Who’s winning in North Carolina? 

Consensus: Donald Trump

An average of 16 polls, the most recent on Nov. 4, shows Trump with a 1.3% lead in North Carolina. North Carolina has 16 electoral votes. 

Who’s winning in Pennsylvania? 

Virtually tied

An average of 25 polls, the most recent on Nov. 4, shows Trump and Harris virtually tied at both 48.2%. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes. 

Who’s winning in Wisconsin? 

Consensus: Kamala Harris 

An average of 17 polls, the most recent on Nov. 4, shows Harris with a 1.1% lead in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes. 

The Source: This story was written based on information published on Nov. 5, 2024, by 270toWin, a national polling aggregate, citing the averages of several polls being conducted continuously across the U.S. The story was reported from Detroit with contribution from Kelly Hayes.