Pollster talks 2024 election trends, public sentiment

WASHINGTON - On "The Final 5," Cliff Young, President of Polling at Ipsos, joined Jim Lokay to break down the latest polling data for the 2024 election. Covering topics from voter confidence to the possibility of post-election unrest, Young provided insights into what the numbers reveal about America's political climate.

Voter Confidence: Will Americans accept the outcome?

According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-October, the majority of Americans, about 83%, indicate they will accept the results of the 2024 election, regardless of who wins. He described this as a "good place to start," though warned that partisanship could still influence public trust. "When you peel away the onion, there’s a lot more fragility there," he added, noting a small gap between Democrats and Republicans who are skeptical.

Divides on election integrity

Young addressed the stark partisan divides on trust in election systems, explaining that Republicans show a markedly lower level of confidence than Democrats in another poll conducted by Ipsos and Reuters. "We asked if people are concerned that the election is rigged, and we see that Republicans believe less in the system than Democrats," Young noted. However, he found it ironic that 57% of Republicans trust the Electoral College, a system that has traditionally favored their party, compared to only 40% of Democrats.

Concerns of violence and a weak democracy

Polling also reveals that Americans are uneasy about the state of U.S. democracy, with 56% rating it as weak in an Ipsos/Scripps News survey conducted among Americans 18 and older. Many anticipate potential violence tied to election outcomes, with 62% agreeing that there could be unrest. "People are expecting it. It’s just kind of a given," Young remarked.

Top issues for voters: Economy and democracy

Looking at what drives voters, Young pointed out that a Ipsos Core Political poll shows the economy remains the top concern across party lines, followed by "threats to democracy," a priority for Democrats. Immigration, championed by Republicans, ranked third. Young summarized, "The economy and threats to democracy are the top concerns, each used strategically by both campaigns."

The Current Landscape: Trump’s advantage and tight polls

Young noted that Donald Trump has held a steady advantage on economic issues, with an eight-point lead over Vice President Harris in swing states in the aforementioned ABC News/Ipsos poll. While trends show a slight edge for Trump, Young emphasized the race’s unpredictability. "This is 50 over 50 trending Trump, but I have a low level of conviction," he confessed, explaining how easily shifts could occur.

A lengthy election night?

As a final note, Young hinted that election night could stretch on for days. "If it’s very close, neither side is going to cede. I think this will take a week or more to settle," he projected.