New poll shows Hogan with narrow lead over Democratic contenders for Maryland Senate

Maryland hasn’t elected a Republican senator in nearly four decades, but according to new polling, that streak could soon come to an end.

A Goucher College poll released Tuesday has former Governor Larry Hogan edging out either of his likely Democratic opponents. 

In a hypothetical race against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 44 percent of respondents said they’d back Hogan, 40 percent said they’d vote for Alsobrooks, and 11 percent were undecided.

In a hypothetical race against U.S. Rep. David Trone, Hogan took 43 percent of respondents, Trone took 42 percent, and 10 percent of respondents were undecided.

"What our results show effectively is that Hogan is still quite popular among Marylanders," explained Maleah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College. "Moreover, almost everybody can rate Larry Hogan," whereas statewide name recognition could be more of a challenge for the Dems.

"Both Trone and Alsobrooks still have a high amount of folks who say they don’t know how to rate either one of these candidates," Kromer said.

The poll had Trone slightly ahead of Alsobrooks among likely Democratic voters, with 42 percent of respondents saying they’d vote for Trone, 33 percent for Alsobrooks, and nearly a quarter of respondents still undecided.

Kromer added, however, that there’s still a long way to go, and the polls are likely to change.

"The average voter is gonna pay attention to the primaries and the general election race closer to the actual election day," she said.

To read the full poll results, you can click here.

All three campaigns released statements in response to the poll.

"Governor Hogan is humbled by the support from across the political spectrum," said Press Secretary Blake Kernen. "They know he has a record of working for all Marylanders, regardless of political affiliation. As the underdog in this race, he will continue to focus on fixing the broken politics of Washington."

"We’ve been hard at work connecting with voters across Maryland, and I’m thrilled to see that our message is resonating throughout the state," Rep. Trone said in a statement. "But Maryland Democrats can’t afford to become complacent. The path to a Senate majority runs through Maryland, and we must do whatever it takes to beat Mitch McConnell’s star recruit, Larry Hogan, and protect the Democratic majority in the United States Senate. Our team is fully committed to organizing every community across Maryland to build meaningful connections with voters about the issues they care most about. That’s the mission: to put people over politics. That’s why we’ll beat Larry Hogan in November." 

"This latest independent poll confirms a clear pattern: Angela Alsobrooks is quickly closing the gap in this Primary and enters this month with clear momentum," Alsobrooks for U.S. Senate Communications Director Gina Ford wrote. "While her opponent has already spent $40 million trying to beat Angela, most voters are just getting to know Angela on the airwaves. The fact that her opponent has only a single digit lead in this Primary is a testament to the strength of Angela's candidacy. We are on track to win this Primary. Maryland is a tale of two states when it comes to voting in gubernatorial and presidential years when over a million democrats who stayed home in 2022. The candidate who can beat Larry Hogan is the candidate who can energize those voters, including young voters and people of color. Angela Alsobrooks is the candidate who can and will turn out the necessary Democrats to win in November."