Loudoun County special elections could shake up state legislature

Voters cast ballots in portions of Loudoun County for two special elections Tuesday.  Early voting has happened for weeks.

A House and Senate seat are up for grabs as the Virginia legislature gears up for its 2025 session.             

If you look at the votes for president last November alone, Democrats certainly have an advantage.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Vice President Kamala Harris won both these districts by over 20 points over President-Elect Donald Trump.             

In the race for Senate District 32, Republican Tumay Harding is facing off against Democrat Kannan Srinivasan.  House District 26 is being contested between Democrat J.J. Singh and Republican Ram Venkatachalam.

Virginia always gets a lot of attention because it elects a new governor the year after the country elects a president.

Who it chooses is a litmus test of sorts.

These two special elections are on the heels of a presidential election that saw Virginia swing four points to Donald Trump and Loudoun County swing 9 points right.

"I was very shocked. I’m amazed that it went that far towards Trump. I think it’s going to go back to the way it was and go Democratic," said Brad McKimens, a voter outside the South Riding Town Hall precinct.

"The most motivating factor is our right and those who came before me to give me that right is the most motivating factor for me to get out and vote," said voter Jennifer Evans.

As for what’s at stake here, Democrats have a one-seat majority in the House and Senate.          

If the Democrats win both — they keep their majority in both chambers.              

If the Republicans win the House, the House goes 50-50 with a power-sharing agreement likely.

If the Republican wins the Senate, it goes 20-20, with Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears likely breaking critical ties for Republicans.

"It is a test of strength for the parties and their political operations. It is a test of where the voters are. Definitely, there’s a way to read these special elections of what the temperature of the voters are, what the pulse of the state is, and so, I mean, it’s probably fair to read into the election results a little bit of a sense of where the voters are into this critical election year," said Michael Pope, a reporter for Virginia Public Radio who covers the Virginia legislature.

Pope tells FOX 5 he’d expect politics watchers to find any tea leaves they can about voter sentiment after the 2024 Presidential Election, but cautions against over-reading given how these two districts favor Democrats.

"Because this is the first election since November. It’s easy to sort of read it as a response to the election or the next steps or how the Democrats are feeling or how the Republicans are feeling. I would caution against though, because of the partisan lean of both of these districts," Pope added.