New poll shows Harris surging in state thought to be safe for Trump
Who won the debate? Polls show Harris slightly ahead of Trump
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris went head-to-head in their first and possibly only debate this election season. U.S. News and World Report Editor-at-Large Brian Kelly and Reuters White House Correspondent Jeff Mason join On The Hill to discuss the big night and the polls that have followed.
Vice President Kamala Harris has made up significant ground on former President Trump in Iowa, a state previously thought to be safely in the former president’s column.
Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.
The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
"I wouldn’t say 4 points is comfortable" for Trump, pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Des Moines Register in reaction to the poll, the first Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll to be released since Harris became the Democratic nominee. "The race has tightened significantly."
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Iowa has long been an afterthought in this year’s race, not typically included as a swing state along with the group of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with most analysts believing the state to be safely red. Trump won the state by nearly 10 percentage points in 2016 and a similar margin in 2020, a margin that would be seemingly difficult to overcome for Harris in 2024.
But Iowa has been a swing state in the past, going to Democratic Vice President Al Gore in 2000, Republican President George W. Bush in 2004, and former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
While one poll is unlikely to change the overall dynamic of the race, Harris’ ability to put former Midwestern swing states such as Iowa or Ohio in play could put her in a stronger position come November.
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The Harris surge in Iowa can largely be attributed to female voters, with the poll finding the vice president leads Trump among women 53% to 36%. Meanwhile, Trump leads among men in the state 59% to 32%.
Women are also more likely to vote than they were in previous versions of the survey, with 8% more women indicating they will vote in this year’s election than in the June poll.
Other groups that showed an uptick in plans to vote included those younger than 45 (10% increase), those from cities (6%), and those with a college degree (9%).