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Florida storm live updates: Watches expand as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine expected to strengthen

By and
Published  September 24, 2024 11:19am EDT
Hurricanes
FOX 35 Orlando

EDITOR'S NOTE: FOX 35 News is no longer updating this article. Click here for the very latest on Tropical Storm Helene (formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine).

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine: 8 a.m. Tuesday update

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner provides an update on a tropical disturbance that is approaching the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to become a tropical storm or hurricane – named Helene – before making a turn towards Florida this week.

A tropical system is expected to rapidly intensify into a tropical storm and then a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere over Florida this week, according to the latest track and projections from the National Hurricane Center.

When it forms, it will be known as Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Regardless of where it makes landfall, Central Florida and Tampa will likely see impacts from the storm, including tropical storm-force winds, heavy rain, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 of the state's 67 counties: Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE: LOCATION l TIMELINE l SPAGHETTI MODELS l FLORIDA IMPACTS | WATCHES & WARNINGS

Here's the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine's anticipated path, cone, timeline, and impact on Florida. 

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 right now?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is about 150 miles west of the Grand Cayman Islands and 205 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

It's traveling NW at 9 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 38-73 mph, while a Category 1 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 74 mph. A northwestward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

"On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday," the NHC said.

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Timeline: When it forms, when is Hurricane Helene expected to hit Florida?

The data is not concrete yet, but a hurricane is expected to be off the coast of Florida by Thursday morning.

Where it will make landfall, if it will make landfall over Florida, isn't entirely certain. As of Tuesday, current models show the projected hurricane making landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on Thursday between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m., according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday and could become a major hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) before reaching Florida on Thursday, according to the NHC.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine spaghetti models: Where is the tropical storm headed?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to develop into a tropical depression and "rapidly intensify" into Hurricane Helene. Some models suggest it could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).

How will the potential tropical storm impact Central Florida?

If the hurricane hits the western coast of Florida, Central Florida would be on the so-called "dirty" side – or western side – of the storm, which typically suggests more activity, in terms of thunderstorms and tornado potential.

Regardless of where it makes landfall, Central Florida will likely see strong winds, heavy rain, potential ponding or flooding in areas, and increased risk for severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for:

  • Portions of Seminole, Orange, Oseceola, Lake, Sumter and Polk Counties
  • Dry Tortugas
  • Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
  • Flamingo to south of Englewood
  • West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for:

  • Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
  • Tampa Bay
  • Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for:

  • Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
  • Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
  • Englewood to Indian Pass
  • Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for:

  • Grand Cayman
  • Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
  • Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth  

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for:

  • Dry Tortugas
  • Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
  • Flamingo to south of Englewood
  • West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
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More radar maps from FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar

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