Fall Foliage: When is peak color expected in the DC region?

WASHINGTON - Fall is in full swing across the D.C. region, and we have started off the season on quite a wet note. In fact, through the first day of October, D.C. has seen ten straight days of measurable rain. This is tied for the second-longest streak in DC history, second only to the first fifteen days of May 2016. 

Will all this rain have any impact on this season's fall foliage though?

So we look at several signals starting all the way back in the spring actually to determine what type of year it could be for fall colors. Unfortunately, the signals for much of the year were not the best. 

Our region has battled a drought for much of 2024. Spring was not notably wet, and the summer months were particularly dry for long stretches and quite hot. This put many of the trees in our region, especially those to the west of town where the drought reached exceptional status, under considerable stress. 

As we have transitioned into fall, we have been on a bit of a better streak. Compared to a normal September, this past one was a bit on the cooler side. We did not hit 90°F once in September, something that the District has not done since 2011. 

While the pattern has been wet to wrap up the month, the thing to monitor as the season begins is whether we get any particularly heavy rain or wind events that could loosen the weakening foliage from the branches. So far we have not had any damaging rain or wind events that could contribute to "early leaf loss".  

In a typical season, colors peak over the highlands of Virginia and West Virginia first, typically by the middle of October. Western suburbs see colors increase though the middle of the month, peaking typically during the final week and a half of October. Those along and east of the I-95 corridor typically see their colors peak during the first week of November. 

This is because of the influence of the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay, which tend to keep temperatures up at night. Typically, leaf change timing does not vary too much from year to year, typically only varying by a week on either side of average.  

One of the things that will start to have a major impact on the leaves is just how fast our region cools through the month of October. 

Between October 1st and November 1st, the average high temperature in Washington, D.C. drops 11°F while the average overnight low temperature drops from 58°F to 46°F. The cooler nights will really help bring out the colors as we get deeper into October. 

As for expectations, colors should start to become more and more noticeable over the next two weeks, with the most dramatic changes being noticed over the mountain regions to the west. 

Due the extensiveness of the drought over the summer, we are expecting some additional leaf loss than in an average season, and colors will likely be more muted as a result. Still, that does not mean colors will not be present. The colors are likely to be shorter lived than in past years though once they do turn over, so we recommend getting out to see them during the middle of October before the colors fade. 

Given recent trends, the most likely time for peak color this year closer to Washington, DC is the final week of October. Much like our neighbors to the west, colors will be a little muted across the DC region this year, and the peak is unlikely to be prolonged. We expect a good amount of leaf loss to occur by the time the calendar rolls over to the first week of November. 

Fall is in full swing, but winter is already just a couple of months away. How do we think this winter will fare? Stay tuned for the Fox 5 Weather Team's winter weather outlook for the upcoming 2024-25 winter, to be released in the weeks ahead!