WASHINGTON - FOX 5 spoke with presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman about the 2024 race for the White House and who he thinks will win. Here’s what he said.
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No final predictions just yet, he said. But Lichtman, who has predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 "Keys to the White House" method, said a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose this election.
According to his system, the White House party needs to lose six keys for him to predict their loss. Right now, they are down three: KEY 1 (Party Mandate), KEY 3 (Incumbency), and KEY 12 (Incumbent Charisma). "Three more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat," Lichtman said. "And only two keys right now look really shaky." Those keys, foreign policy and social unrest – both of which are unlikely.
When asked if anything changed when looking at the keys for President Joe Biden versus the keys for Vice President Kamala Harris, Lichtman said very little.
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"Minimal charge," he said. "Obviously, they lost the incumbency key. It's now an open seat," he said. "But the Democrats finally grew a spine and got smart after publicly trashing their incumbent president."
"They united behind Harris and therefore avoided losing the party contest key," he continued. "And Harris seems to have a positive effect on the third-party key, that is, voters no longer have to say, ‘Well, maybe I don't want to vote for one of these two old guys.’"
What about the vice-presidential picture? "My keys have no vice-presidential key," he said. "Vice presidents have not influenced the outcome." "But it looks like she might be trying to pick off a state. Whether that could work or not. I doubt it. But she'll try, maybe, with Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania or Kelly in Arizona, two critical swing states."